Working Papers

Duration Dependence and Heterogeneity: Learning from Early Notice of Layoff, Revise and resubmit, Journal of Applied Econometrics

Current Draft

arXiv

Data & Code

This paper presents a novel approach to distinguish the impact of duration dependent forces and adverse selection on the exit rate from unemployment by leveraging variation in the length of layoff notices. I formulate a Mixed Hazard model in discrete time and specify the conditions under which variation in notice length enables the identification of structural duration dependence while allowing for arbitrary heterogeneity across workers. Utilizing data from the Displaced Worker Supplement (DWS), I employ the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to estimate the model. According to the estimates, the decline in the exit rate over the first 48 weeks of unemployment is largely due to the worsening composition of surviving jobseekers. Furthermore, I find that an individual's likelihood of exiting unemployment decreases initially, then increases until unemployment benefits run out, and remains steady thereafter. These findings are consistent with a standard search model where returns to search decline early in the spell.
California's $20 Fast-Food Minimum Wage: Job Postings and Anticipation with Taylor Mackay
Labor Market Concentration and Wealth Inequality with Thomas J. May

In this paper, we develop a rich quantitative model to study the interaction between labor market concentration and wealth inequality. In our model, concentration affects wealth inequality through three channels. First, large firms pay lower wages while generating profits that go to wealthier shareholders. Second, borrowing-constrained workers cannot afford unemployment, which weakens their bargaining power and lowers their wages---an effect that is stronger in more concentrated markets where unemployment risk is higher. Third, there is lower job mobility in concentrated markets, leaving low-asset workers stuck in low-wage jobs. We utilize microdata and calibrate the model to match trends in U.S. labor markets to quantify the role of increasing concentration in rising wealth inequality over the last three decades. Finally, using our model as a laboratory, we study the optimal mix of minimum wage (a tax borne by employers) and social welfare (a tax on society as a whole). Our framework is well suited for this analysis, as it highlights how a worker’s ability to insure against risk influences the impact of employer market power.

Publications

Discrete-Time Mixed Proportional Hazard Model, Applied Economics Letters, 2025

Preprint

Published Version

Data & Code

This paper provides a constructive proof of identification for the discrete-time variant of the Mixed Proportional Hazard model. The identification result is used to develop a fully nonparametric estimator based on the Generalized Method of Moments, which converges at a root-n rate and is asymptotically normally distributed. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the estimator also performs well in finite samples.
Understanding the Racial Employment Gap: The Role of Sectoral Shifts with Carter Bryson, Labour Economics, 2023

Preprint

Published Version

Employment outcomes of Black men worsened significantly relative to White men during the second half of the 20th century. We explore the role of broad sectoral shifts in labor demand over this period in explaining this trend. We first quantify changes in local employment and population in response to local labor demand shifts for both groups of workers. We then combine our estimates with a stylized model that incorporates frictional local labor markets and imperfect mobility across markets. Our framework enables us to aggregate local responses while accounting for geographic mobility and regional employment composition. We find that sectoral reallocation can explain around one-fifth of the total exacerbation in the employment-to-population ratio differential between Black and White men over 1970–2010. Out-migration from harder-hit markets, while large, does not mitigate the impact of negative labor demand shifts. We also find that most of the predicted change in the employment differential is due to differential response rather than differential exposure to shifts across two groups.

Interdisciplinary Papers

Who Do You Ask? Predicting Injury Rates from Survey Responses with Leslie I Boden, Yixin Pan, Matt Gregas, Melissa McTernan, Susan E Peters, Gregory R Wagner and Erika L Sabbath, WORK, 2024

Published Version